Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a assumption familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
