Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
