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A bettor made nearly half a million dollars from wagers on the downfall of Nicolás Maduro shortly prior to it was publicly declared, raising questions about whether someone profited from inside knowledge of the event.

Changing Odds in Forecasts

Predictions made on the forecasting site, an online prediction market, that Nicolás Maduro would be out of power by the close of the month rose in the hours before former President Trump declared on January 3rd that the Venezuelan leader had been apprehended.

One account, which became a member in December and took four positions, all on Venezuela, profited a total of $436K from a modest bet of over $32,000.

Who placed the bet is a mystery. The user had only a string of letters and numbers for identification.

Odds Fluctuate Before Announcement

Trading information shows that users estimated the likelihood of the president's removal at just under 7% in the late afternoon of Friday, January 2nd.

But these probabilities had jumped to over 10% by the end of the day and skyrocketed in the first hours of January 3rd, indicating a rapid movement in positions right before the social media post was made.

"That trade has all the hallmarks of a trade based on inside information," stated an industry expert.

A small number of other individuals also made tens of thousands of dollars from predicting the capture.

Political Attention Grows

Politicians are starting to take note.

A new rule put forward on the start of the week seeks to ban public officials from placing bets on forecasting platforms if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a wager.

The Prediction Market Landscape

Forecasting platforms have grown significantly in the United States, with users able to predict everything from sports to political events.

Prediction markets encountered regulatory challenges under the previous administration. But it has received a warmer welcome during the Trump presidency.

Using confidential knowledge is a crime in the stock market, but there are more ambiguous rules in the event betting industry.

A spokesperson for a competing service said their site "explicitly prohibits insider trading of any form."